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stock market news – complete details

stock market news – complete details 

stock market news – complete details

We provide complete details of stock market news – complete details in this articles.

stock market news – complete details

stock market news:-Sensex consolidates for 3rd day, Nifty fails to hold 8800; Q3 earnings in focus

Global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley today said it expects the Sensex to touch the 39,000 mark in a ‘bull case’ scenario by this December. “Domestic appetite for equities remains strong. Sentiment is off lows though yet to hit exuberant territory,” Morgan Stanley India Strategist Ridham Desai and Sheela Rathi said in a research note. The brokerage has a base case (50 percent probability) target for BSE Sensex at 30,000, a bull case (30 percent probability) of 39,000 and a bear case (20 percent probability) of 24,000. “Strong corporate payout (buybacks and dividends), a new M&A cycle, and robust household demand for equities combined with improving growth and reasonable equity valuations (versus emerging markets and bonds) bring our bull case into play,” it said. On corporate fundamentals, the report said that improving external environment, stronger consumption, and robust public capex augur well for earnings, although “headwinds” may come from higher oil prices and sluggish private capex. “Corporate M&A is likely ticking higher given strong free cash flows and higher nominal growth. Combined with strong domestic flows, this creates a case for an overshoot in Indian equity multiples,” the report said. Sector-wise, the brokerage is ‘overweignt’ on consumer discretionary, financials, and technology and ‘underweight’ on consumer staples, energy, materials and telecoms. The 30-share benchmark index Sensex is currently trading at 28,300 level, while the NSE Nifty is quoted at 8,700 level. Regarding the RBI’s policy stance, the report said the end of the easing cycle is likely nearing, given higher oil prices and US rates and stickiness in core inflation. The Reserve Bank in its policy review meet on February 8 kept key interest rate unchanged at 6.25 percent and said that it is awaiting more clarity on inflation trend and impact of demonetisation on growth. The next meeting of the MPC is scheduled on April 5 and 6, 2017.

stock market news:-Liquidity will have a premium in volatile market, says Manish Chokhani

n an exclusive chat with Vishal Chhabria and Hamsini Karthik, Manish Chokhani, director, Enam Holdings and a long-time observer of Indian equities says investors should brace for volatility, and keep some cash. While pointing to the current bull-run in mid- and small-cap stocks, he advises that only those investors with appetite to absorb shocks participate in this space. He also expresses his worries on currency valuations and pre-empts that the global economic weakness will be solved only through currency realignment. Edited excerpts:

stock market news:-How much leg does the post-budget rally have?

It’s a case of liquidity overtaking fundamentals. This year’s budget was about absence of negatives and the markets are rallying in relief. This is the normal case in a market cycle when you expect the economy to recover and you don’t have on-ground investment proposals from corporate. So excess liquidity gets into investment assets.   This cycle has been playing out in the last two-three years even as we wait for earnings to come through. If you juxtapose this with the amount of liquidity sloshing around the world, then the liquidity starts finding reasons to feel positive. Recently, the liquidity is only domestic inflow driven.

stock market news:-How long will this liquidity stay?

SIPs seem to be the primary drivers of the market at present. Domestic funds have an average flow of Rs 10,000 crore a month, which is serious money. Even though FII flows haven’t been that much in the last two years – the fact remains that with endless QE in the developed world, there is surplus liquidity. This year, for the first time, domestic flows will be more than FIIs.

stock market news:-During this rally, do you get a sense that the market is overheated?

Valuations are not cheap. You will find people are bullish but hard-pressed to give five great stock recommendations. Earlier there was not this kind of liquidity looking for an outlet, therefore valuation paradigms and return expectations seem to have changed.  In the absence of alternative investment options, equities are moving up. The sad reality is that the market is too small and shallow. So the small amounts of money give rise to these rallies.

stock market news:-What is the real issue in your view which is holding back earnings growth?

Most of our problems are largely to do with the loss of purchasing power and plateauing of per capita income in India. I’ve been crying about the decline in the rupee. Our concepts of REER (real effective exchange rate) are outdated. No one measures us against the Chinese Yuan our only real competitor! We used to be four-to-one versus the Yuan a few years back. We are now ten-to-one versus the Yuan. Yet in the last five years, export growth has been flat including service exports. It implies that even if you keep depreciating the INR to 200 levels, you still won’t get the expected outcome! Meanwhile you collapse the domestic market by importing inflation and destroying purchasing power and the investment climate. The west has blown up their economies with too much debt and they are going to be in deflation.   Old economic school is going to say that you (INR) must depreciate because your inflation is larger than theirs. But when the west is printing 2 – 3 trillion dollars every year, having USD 360 billion of “reserves” is a misnomer. The big elephant in the room is our misguided view about the rupee. If you were earnings Rs 10 lakhs in 2007, it was USD 25,000. Today the same earnings is only USD 15,000. How would you consume with declining real Income?

stock market news:-How would you place your bets in equities?

Brace for volatility, keep cash and play sector/stock rotation. The stock market is game of buying the odds. For example, you can see mispriced bets across hated sectors. Stocks like SBI and Bank of Baroda may not be bad in the PSU banks basket. These are too big to fail. Since they are not priced right, there is money to be made here. Same for neglected IT and pharma stocks.  My portfolio is full of Consumer discretionary, private banks and NBFCs. But we need to be very stock specific. Unless you have a glorious bull market you can’t take a sectoral call. The only caution is that in such a volatile world there will be a break out at some point. At that time liquidity will have a premium. The current bull market is in small and mid caps. So unless you are very sure that you won’t be scared of holding the stock in a crisis, you shouldn’t hold the stock. Always keep cash for opportunities – markets sell off twice a year since last five years! Stay alert and prepared!

stock market news:-Lot of government action is now going towards the bottom of pyramid segment…

I am an optimist at heart and I want a bull run more than you do. However, we must learn from the example of China. When China was growing at 8 – 10 per cent a year, it pegged its currency to the USD that was their main “competitor”. It also focused on creation of jobs and growth in real per capita Income. That kind of job creation is not happening India and hence demand creation is also not happening. China took right steps on two things – they pegged their currency to USD so they didn’t get poorer and poorer. And two- they created the capacity to export to the world with the infrastructure to support it. But, we seem to think that we can abdicate responsibility for infrastructure to the private sector and bypass job creation and manufacturing growth and instead focus on services. IT service exports are less than the amount of money we receive through remittances by Indians working abroad! So after all these years of hype, IT exports contribute to 4% percent of our GDP and are now at risk. A larger bull market implies a boom for everybody. But the construct right now is that only few will become rich. If the government had the guts to demonetise, what’s holding them back from privatising old assets to build new capacities in infrastructure?

stock market news:-If BJP loses in any of the states, is it a vote against demonetisation?

I think that is an overstretched argument. Elections are never fought on a single issue. In Punjab it will be a vote against drugs and for job creation. In Uttar Pradesh it’s usually about caste and religion but development will be key. In fact, at the mass level, the way people cooperated on demonetisation is unprecedented in the world. They see this as fight against the corrupt and the rich, and so even if it caused them inconvenience they were okay with it.

stock market news:-Trump is implementing his election promises…

The world is clearly de-globalising. All the western economies are ex-growth and at this time they will tend to be increasingly protective. Businesses will have to be disruptive and innovative at these times. The tailwind of globalisation we got from 1990 to 2008 is certainly gone. That is the challenge- technology, de-globalisation and geopolitics. China is playing the game very smartly, whether on geopolitical issues or across industries. Markets are currently driven by China. Nobody would have thought that the best performing stocks of 2016 will be metal stocks. Right now we are used to looking at US Fed for cues, but actual impulses are coming from China.

stock market news:-What are the headwinds the market is not factoring now?

Geopolitical risks and a regime change in the world order.  It’s a holding pattern since 2008; a game of ringa-ringa roses, either across markets or asset classes. Gold is out of flavour today, six months later it will once again become attractive. In technical parlance you are looking for break out but nobody is breaking out. Everyone is trying to maintain the status quo. The West should see currency depreciation and get a lot poorer. India is scared that if our currency appreciates who will buy from us. But a breakout is inevitable. We think their governments will come to the rescue again, but they have fired all the ‘Brahmasthras’ (ammunition) and there’s very little to fire. A very famous investor has said Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. It has to blow at some point. The government debt to GDP is 350 per cent. The demographics have gone wrong and the same applies to Europe. This is why the US dollar is strengthening. But if dollar appreciates or interest rates rise, the US will also be in a big mess. So the ultimate game will be solved through major currency realignments.

stock market news – complete details

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